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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
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Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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