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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
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Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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