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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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