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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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