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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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