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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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Showing 26 to 30 news of total 6871 |
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
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