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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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Showing 26 to 30 news of total 6871 |
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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