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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. Mor ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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