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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO REMOVE THE INDIAN OCEAN HIGH RISK AREA - BIMCO
After more than a decade of effective threat-reducing counter-piracy operations the shipping industry has removed the ‘Indian Ocean High Risk ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING: GLOBAL TAX REFORM - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
OECD rules designed to implement a global minimum corporate tax rate for very large multinational groups have now been published and are expected t ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
PARTIES CONCLUDE JOINT R&D AGREEMENT FOR WORLD’S FIRST AMMONIA FLOATING STORAGE AND REGASIFICATION BARGE CONTRIBUTING TO PROMOTING THE EARLY INTRODUCTION OF AMMONIA FUEL - NYK
NYK Line, Nihon Shipyard Co., Ltd. (NSY), ClassNK, and IHI Corporation (IHI) signed a joint research and development agreement for the commercializ ...
Monday, 22 August 22
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT IMPOSED ON NEW PROGRESSIVE ROYALTIES FOR COAL
Indonesian President Joko Widodo has signed a Government Regulation (Number 26 of 2022) on 15 August 2022 related to the progressive royalty rates ...
Monday, 22 August 22
CHINA'S JULY RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS HIT 5-YR HIGH AS WEST SHUNS MOSCOW - REUTERS
China’s coal imports from Russia jumped 14% in July from a year earlier to their highest in at least five years, as China bought discounted c ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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