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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 September 22
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for September delivery drops 0.74 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price R ...
Friday, 02 September 22
ABM INVESTAMA BUYS 30% GEMS SHARES FOR US$ 420 MILLION
PT ABM Investama Tbk through its indirect subsidiary, bought a 30% stake in the PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk for US$ 420 million or around Rp 6.2 tri ...
Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal comp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
A COMBINED US$6.8-BILLION CASH BALANCE OF INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES COULD PROVIDE FOR TIMELY INVESTMENTS IN GREEN TRANSITION - IEEFA
A combined US$6.8-billion cash balance of Indonesian coal companies could provide for timely investments in green transition
The opp ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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