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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 16 September 22
WHEN IS A VESSEL'S INCOME EARNING CAPACITY AT RISK? 'CONTROLLED INCOME CAN BE A KEY OF SUCCESS' - MARASCO MARINE
Managing marine risks is not an easy task, which requires special knowledge and expertise on the subject per se. Customarily, big ship management c ...
Friday, 16 September 22
DRY BULK MARKET: EU’S BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL LIFTS DEMAND DESPITE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS - BIMCO
Highlights
– The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) peaked in late May and has since fallen sharply as lower Chinese demand and adverse glob ...
Friday, 16 September 22
BIMCO EMBARKS ON NEW STANDARD FOR “QUIET ENJOYMENT”
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A newly set-up BIMCO drafting team involving a cross-section of shipowners, charterers, financing and leasing i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 150 PER CENT IN 10 YEARS: CENTRE - EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
The Union Ministry of Mines is expecting 150 per cent growth in coal production 10 years down the line as a result of coal reforms that had been us ...
Thursday, 15 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a 100,000 b/d output cut last week, oil flows are in the spotlight ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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