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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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