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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
Sunday, 02 October 22
MISC STRENGTHENS ITS PARTNERSHIP WITH SEARIVER MARITIME
MISC Berhad (MISC) today announced that its subsidiaries Polaris LNG Three Pte. Ltd. and Polaris LNG Four Pte. Ltd. have secured long-term time cha ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This week, focus turns to the 38th APPEC Conference, where leading professionals from the global oil industry will discuss the future key drivers o ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
HIGH COAL PRICES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR DOMESTIC NON-FERROUS METAL COMPANIES - ICRA
According to ICRA on Monday, the high price of coal will have a negative effect on the profitability of domestic non-ferrous metal companies that m ...
Tuesday, 27 September 22
14% INCREASE IN EUROPEAN COAL DEMAND TO BE SHORT-TERM TREND - WOOD MACKENZIE
European seaborne thermal coal demand is projected to increase 14% or 12 million metric tonnes (Mt) this year to 98 Mt as it grapples with the curr ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
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