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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 23 September 22
CHINA DIGS DEEP TO RAISE COAL OUTPUT TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal production has surged this year as the government seeks to improve energy security by reducing dependence on imports and amassin ...
Friday, 23 September 22
EUROPEAN STEEL BUYERS SEEK DIRECTION IN VOLATILE MARKET - MEPS INTERNATIONAL
Demand for steel is slow to recover, after the summer break. Mill production costs continue to increase. Steel purchasers are uncertain about the f ...
Friday, 23 September 22
BUOYANT COAL INDUSTRY SEEKS WAYS TO STAY IN THE LONG-TERM ENERGY MIX - REUTERS
There’s no doubt that the global coal industry has been a major beneficiary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy c ...
Friday, 23 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In view of the forthcoming winter, Europe is trying to escape from its energy (oil & gas) dependency from Russia to ensure energy abundance eve ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA'S DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS 3-MONTH LOW IN AUGUST ON RAINS, COVID CURBS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in August slipped to a three-month low as some mines in its biggest coal mining regions reduced operations or even ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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