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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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