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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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