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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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