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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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