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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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