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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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