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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
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Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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