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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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