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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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