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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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