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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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