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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
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