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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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