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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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