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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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