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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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