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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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