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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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Showing 101 to 105 news of total 6871 |
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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