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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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