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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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