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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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