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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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