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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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