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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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