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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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