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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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