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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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