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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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