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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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