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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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