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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 07 March 18
WHEN AN IRRESISTIBLE FORCE MEETS AN IMMOVABLE OBJECT - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negotiable bills of lading are fundamental to trade. As documents of title, they are essential to the sale and carriage o ...
Wednesday, 07 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
The comparably small upside Handysize asset values have noted compared to other sizes since the historical lows of the dry bulk market in combinati ...
Tuesday, 06 March 18
FOREIGN INVESTORS ALLOWED TO BID FOR BIG MINING CONCESSIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has allowed foreign investors to bid for mining concessions with a total area of more than 500 hectares, while smaller areas will be ...
Tuesday, 06 March 18
LNG VESSELS HAVE EMERGED AS THE FASTEST GROWING SEGMENT FOR THE WATERWAY - GERRY LATHROP
The day was July 25th 2016, a partly cloudy day on the Panama canal, and to most people a rather innocuous day without any real merit, however in s ...
Friday, 02 March 18
ANGLO AMERICAN COMPLETES SALE OF ESKOM-TIED THERMAL COAL OPERATIONS IN SOUTH AFRICA
Anglo American plc (“Anglo American”) confirms completion of the sale of its Eskom-tied domestic thermal coal operations in South Afric ...
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Showing 1786 to 1790 news of total 6871 |
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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