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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 09 March 18
U.S. EXPORTED 97 MMST OF COAL IN 2017, A 61 PER CENT INCREASE FROM 2016 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.1 million short tons ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$ 500 MILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT TANAH BUMBU RESOURCES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into mining services ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
THE ENERGY CONTRIBUTION FROM COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 1072 BU BY 2021-22 : PIB
Government of India has set an ambitious target of 175 GW from Renewable energy sources (RES) by 2022, which comprises of 100 GW Solar, 60GW from W ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
SUPRAMAX: THE MARKET IS STILL GOING STRONG IN THE PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market is still going strong in the Pacific, with Ultra fixing high US$ 13000+375000 bb for South Africa to ECI while nickel ore run ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
AVERAGE U.S. COAL MINING PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES AS PRODUCTION FALLS - EIA
Coal mining productivity in the United States increased 26% over the past five years, reaching 6.8 tons per miner hour in 2017, up from 5.4 tons pe ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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