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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 March 18
MORE COAL INQUIRES FROM SOUTH AFRICA TO INDIA; SUPRAS FIXED CA $12K + BB - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Better rates in Atlantic, but not too busy market just yet.
Black Sea catched improving rates for grain cargoes, where supras to Eg ...
Friday, 02 March 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7 PER CENT W/E 24 FEB, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
INDIA: TEPID COAL TRAFFIC TO HIT VOLUME GROWTH AT PORTS TILL 2022 - PTI
Cargo growth at the country’s major ports is all set to moderate to 3-5 per cent per annum over the next five years due to the “sedate ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the Inte ...
Tuesday, 27 February 18
SHELL SEES POTENTIAL LNG SUPPLY SHORTAGE AS GLOBAL DEMAND SURGES
Media Release: The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has continued to defy expectations of many market observers, with demand growing by 29 ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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