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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 24 February 18
CHINA BECOMES WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST LNG IMPORTER, BEHIND JAPAN - EIA
China surpassed South Korea to become the world’s second-largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2017, according to data from IHS ...
Friday, 23 February 18
ESTIMATED U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.8 PER CENT W/E 17 FEB' 18 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.6 million short tons ...
Thursday, 22 February 18
WHY THE COMMODITY RALLY WILL GET BACK ON TRACK - SIMON FLOWERS
Implications for the US dollar and producers
Are we in the early stages of a sustained rise in commodity prices? And what does it mean for the ...
Thursday, 22 February 18
PANAMAX: IT HAS BEEN A SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slight improvement from Atlantic with more hope for upcoming weeks. More grain cargoes from Black Sea made fhaul rates better again $17- ...
Wednesday, 21 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
2017 proved to be a relatively good year with positive margins for the Dry Bulk market. Especially during the last quarter of the year everyone can ...
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Showing 1796 to 1800 news of total 6871 |
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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