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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 14 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
The second month of the year is traditionally a particularly interesting one for the shipping industry as a whole and even more importantly for the ...
Monday, 12 February 18
PANAMAX: WITH LIMITED FRESH ENQUIRY IN ALL AREAS, SPOT MARKET RATES DRIFTED LOWER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A switch to the Atlantic with rates firming as charterers seemed keen to fix and tonnage was tight, prompting a recovery in rates. Trans ...
Monday, 12 February 18
WORLDWIDE: 'DEMURRAGE CLAIMS' FOR THE PURPOSES OF DOCUMENTARY TIME BARS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 2 February 2018 the Commercial Court allowed an appeal from a decision of the Arbitration Tribunal in Lukoil Asia Paci ...
Saturday, 10 February 18
COAL INDIA ON PATH OF SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION GROWTH AND SUPPLY TO POWER AND NON POWER SECTOR - PIB
Supply of 371.8 MT of Coal to Power Sector and 103.1 MT Coal to Non-Power Sector Achieved in 2017-18 Till January,2018 Average Rake Loading To The ...
Saturday, 10 February 18
OIL PRICE USD 100/BARREL BY END OF 2018! - SAROJ MOHAPATRA
All demand supplies calculations are going wrong in oil market at present. US production is increasing at a good pace and set to topple Saudi comfo ...
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Showing 1806 to 1810 news of total 6871 |
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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