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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 30 March 18
SHIPPING INDUSTRY CONFIDENCE HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping Confidence Survey
In February 2018, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was up from 6.2 in November 2017 t ...
Friday, 30 March 18
EXPLAINING POLAND'S COAL PARADOX - FORBES
In the U.S. coal is succumbing to market forces despite the Trump Administration’s push to support the industry. Abundant, cheap and cleaner ...
Friday, 30 March 18
THIESS SECURES $140M MT OWEN INCREASE
Thiess has secured a A$140 million increase to its contract with Glencore for coal mining services at Mt Owen in the Hunter Valley, Australia. Mt O ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
THIESS WINS $280M WAHANA EXTENSION
Thiess has been awarded a three-year $280 million contract extension at the Wahana coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
According to Thie ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
RIO TINTO TO SELL KESTREL MINE FOR $2.25 BILLION - REUTERS
Rio Tinto sold its remaining coal asset Kestrel in Australia to private equity manager EMR Capital and Indonesia’s Adaro Energy Tbk for $2.25 ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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