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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 05 April 18
INDONESIA TO POSTPONE NEW COAL, PALM OIL SHIPPING RULES TO 2020 - REUTERS
Indonesia will delay until 2020 trade rules requiring exporters of coal and crude palm oil to use only Indonesian-flagged vessels, government offic ...
Tuesday, 03 April 18
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
In the midst of a relatively quiet week for markets, with disruptions being caused by the Christian holidays, it seems as though we find ourselves ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT, SAYS VISTAAR
The freight market softening to continue. Thursday, March 29, 2018, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 42 points, reaching 1080 points.
T ...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS TO DELIVER $150M SENAKIN CONTRACT EXTENSION
Thiess has secured a $150 million contract extension to provide mine services at Arutmin’s Senakin coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
...
Monday, 02 April 18
THIESS SECURES $240M SATUI EXTENSION
The successful implementation of an innovative mining plan by Thiess at the Satui coal mine in South Kalimantan, has resulted in a $240 million con ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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