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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 18 April 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The return of traders and charterers from the Easter festivities came along with a slight increase in activity across the edible oil markets. Howev ...
Monday, 16 April 18
MINISTER IGNASIUS JONAN SPEAKS HIS MIND AT INDONESIA MINER - IAN WOLLFF
The Minister for Energy and Mineral resources, Ignasius Jonan, delivered a key note address at the Indonesia Miner conference in Jakarta on the 11 ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
THE PERFECT STORM FOR THE BIG SHIPS - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The perfect storm for the big ships: with holidays, force majeure in two ore exporting ports and bad weather undermining the market. A l ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SHIPPING CAN MANAGE US-CHINA TARIFFS, BUT RISKS RISING - FITCH
Container and, to some extent, dry bulk would probably be the shipping segments most affected by the recently announced US and China tariffs, Fitch ...
Thursday, 12 April 18
SUPRAS HAVE FIXED MID $11K FOR AN INDO RV TO S. CHINA DELIVERY PHILIPPINES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slow week with little light for improving rates. ECSA to Far East still around $15k + bb and same to Med ca $14k, says Fearnleys in its ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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