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Wednesday, 11 April 18
US-CHINA TARIFF THREATS RAISE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS - FITCH
 Escalating tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments are increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war, says Fitch Ratings. The most likely outcome remains a negotiated solution to U.S.-China trade tensions that has limited effect on the near-term growth outlook in both countries and leaves Fitch’s base case global macroeconomic forecasts intact. However, the risk of a more material impact is growing.
Tariff proposals by the U.S. and Chinese governments last week marked an escalation in protectionist rhetoric between the world’s two largest economies. China proposed levying retaliatory tariffs against $50 billion in U.S. products and U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he was considering additional tariffs on a further $100 billion in Chinese goods to the $50 billion he had initially proposed on March 22.
China is reported to have signaled that it would respond further to such action. Whether this would come in the form of retaliatory tariffs non-tariff protectionist measures or a combination remains to be seen. The U.S. exported $187 billion in goods and services to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. By means of illustration, $150 billion in exports is equivalent to 0.8% of U.S. GDP and 1.3% of China’s GDP. The direct impact of tariffs of 25% on trade flows of this size would be 0.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.3% of China’s.
The potential for trade protectionism to negatively affect the U.S. and China’s growth outlook is rising with every incremental escalation in tariff rhetoric, which could lead to a full-blown trade war. Fitch outlined the potential risks of a global trade war instigated by hypothetical across-the-board U.S. tariffs imposed against key trading partners in a scenario report published last year.
We maintain that this would be an extreme scenario, but the implications of such a wide-ranging tariff war would be significant. Both the U.S. and China would see GDP reduced by over two percentage points from the base line after two years with China being more affected. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan and the UK would see lesser negative effects but still see growth deceleration.
Market reaction to rising uncertainty could pose macroeconomic risks even before the tariffs’ actual implementation. A significant Chinese yuan depreciation, for example, would likely cause a shock to global markets and potentially affect investment and global trade flows.
For now, the specific proposals of $50 billion of tariffs from both countries are targeted as opposed to across-the-board and small relative to the overall size of their respective economies. Should they be implemented as proposed, we believe that the direct macroeconomic effects on trade, growth and confidence, both globally and for the U.S. and China, would be limited. We continue to forecast for U.S. GDP growth to accelerate this year to 2.7%, with the short-term economic outlook improving alongside loose fiscal policy, wage growth and improved investment. Individual sectors could be affected by the implementation of targeted tariffs though, even if the overall macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged.
Importantly, no U.S.-China tariffs have been implemented yet. The U.S.’ initially proposed $50 billion in tariffs are subject to a consultation process so the earliest tariffs are likely to come into effect are the end of May or early June. As such, the tariff proposals may well be part of diplomatic positioning for negotiations and may never come into effect should a mutually agreeable deal be reached that addresses U.S. concerns over the bilateral economic relationship.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 01 May 18
SUPRAMAX: COAL RUNS, A 61,000-DWT WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SURABAYA, FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY INDIA AT $15,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates eased in the East, as the week closed out with the momentum slowing. Levels on the key West Australia/China run dropped to $7.25 ...
Tuesday, 01 May 18
GLOBAL MINER PEABODY EYES SALES OPPORTUNITY IN INDIA’S RISING COAL IMPORTS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Indian imports of coal will continue to rise, reckons the world’s largest private sector coal miner Peabody Energy. Glenn Kellow, president a ...
Saturday, 28 April 18
STRONG ASIAN DEMAND CONTINUES TO HOLD UP THERMAL COAL MARKETS - REUTERS
Asian thermal coal demand is defying its typical seasonal slowdown as well as the expanding use of renewables and natural gas, with prices holding ...
Friday, 27 April 18
PEABODY ENERGY'S REVENUES FOR THE FIRST QUARTER ROSE 10 PERCENT OVER THE PRIOR YEAR TO $1.46 BILLION
Peabody Energy's revenues for the first quarter rose 10 percent over the prior year to $1.46 billion driven by improved seaborne coal pricing a ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
BALTIC EXCHANGE LAUNCHES ESCROW SERVICE FOR VESSEL SALES
The Baltic Exchange will be launching an Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions. The move will allow Baltic Exc ...
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Showing 1731 to 1735 news of total 6871 |
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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